Group G and H Picks

Well, the Cup starts tomorrow, so I'm doing two sets of picks in one. First, Group G:

Ivory Coast vs. Portugal (6/15) - Draw
Brazil vs. North Korea (6/15) - Brazil
Brazil vs. Ivory Coast (6/20) - Brazil
Portugal vs. North Korea (6/21) - Portugal
Portugal vs. Brazil (6/25) - Brazil
North Korea vs. Ivory Coast (6/25) - Draw

1st Place: Brazil 2nd Place: Portugal

Rationale: I might be respecting North Korea and Portugal too much and Ivory Coast too little here. But the Elephants have always been a one man show, and that one man has a broken arm. Portugal barely qualified and Nani is hurt but I still give them the edge over Ivory Coast to get out of the group. After the group, though, I don't see them doing much. Brazil wins this group by virtue of being Brazil.

Now onto Group H:

Honduras vs. Chile (6/16) - Chile
Spain vs. Switzerland (6/16) - Spain
Chile vs. Switzerland (6/21) - Draw
Spain vs. Honduras (6/21) - Spain
Chile vs. Spain (6/25) - Spain
Switzerland vs. Honduras (6/25) - Draw

1st Place: Spain 2nd Place: Chile

Rationale: Spain is simply one of the teams to beat. They might be even better than they were two years ago when they won the Euro 2008. This is a midfield that can use Cesc Fabregas off the bench. That's just silly. They should win this group in a walk. Chile seems to be the least sucky of the rest of this group.

So, that wraps up the picks. I will be checking back in to see how my picks turn out. I fully expect that I will be completely wrong about almost everything. There's a reason I don't gamble on sports, but picking games is fun even if you suck at it. As I write this, opening kick is 15 hours away. Game on.

Group F Picks

I'm highly doubtful anyone from this group is going too deep in the tournament. Italy and Paraguay have talent to be sure, but age and inconsistency haunt both these squads. Slovakia is scrappy and could play spoiler here depending on how things shake out. Here's how I see it:

Italy vs. Paraguay (6/14) - Draw
New Zealand vs. Slovakia (6/15) - Slovakia
Slovakia vs. Paraguay (6/20) - Slovakia
Italy vs. New Zeland (6/20) - Italy
Slovakia vs. Italy (6/24) - Draw
Paraguay vs. New Zealand (6/24) - Paraguay

1st Place: Slovakia 2nd Place: Italy

Rationale: Italy always seems to do enough, and there isn't enough firepower in this group to stand in the way of getting to the next round. I think I'm picking the right two teams to make it out of this group. I give the 1st place spot to Slovakia because they've shown they can come through in the clutch and they attack from the midfield. That should bring goals in group play. I don't see New Zealand getting even a point in this group, but if they do, my guess it will be off of Paraguay, who just hasn't been the same since starting out so strong in qualifying.

Group E Picks

Yikes! Jozy sprained his ankle in practice. Sounds minor so even if he's out for the warm-up match this weekend, he'll hopefully be ready for England. Bummer of a thing to have to worry about though.

Alrighty, Group E picks. I'll be honest, the Netherlands are my pre-tournament-quasi-sleeper pick to win the whole thing. Sure, their back four isn't fantastic, but whose is, other than Brazil?

(Side note: When was the last time Brazil had the best defense going into... well... anything?)

At Euro 2008, the Netherlands tore through group play with mind-blowing counterattacking soccer. Two years later, their best players are in their primes and finished the club season in top form. Unless they have a meltdown, the Oranje look like one of the teams to beat.

Netherlands vs. Denmark (6/14) - Netherlands
Japan vs. Cameroon (6/14) - Cameroon
Netherlands vs. Japan (6/19) - Netherlands
Cameroon vs. Denmark (6/19) - Cameroon
Cameroon vs. Netherlands (6/24) - Netherlands
Denmark vs. Japan (6/24) - Draw

1st Place: Netherlands 2nd Place: Cameroon

Rationale: Obviously I like the Dutch. I think Cameroon is probably the second-best team here. Eto'o is their best known player, but their guys play all over Europe and have made names for themselves at clubs like Tottenham. Denmark has some good players but no game changers. My guess is that Cameroon's physical style will help them edge Denmark and dominate Japan.

Talking Turkey and Group D Picks

I won't say much about the Turkey game. More than any individual performance, what stands out is that the team was able to make adjustments to improve. The US under Bradley (and Arena before him), because team depth was suspect, has had a tendency to stick with the gameplan whether it was working or not. Seeing Bradley make lineup adjustments to spark the attack gives me some comfort going into the tournament.

Now, the group D picks. This is actually a tough group to pick. Ghana and Germany are missing key players and Australia, while ostensibly the minnow of the group, has surprised people before.

Serbia vs. Ghana (6/13) - Draw
Germany vs. Australia (6/13) - Germany
Germany vs. Serbia (6/18) - Serbia
Ghana vs. Australia (6/19) - Ghana
Ghana vs. Germany (6/23) - Ghana
Australia vs. Serbia (6/23) - Serbia

1st Place: Ghana 2nd Place: Serbia

Rationale: What?!?!? Not picking Germany? How dare me! Call it a hunch, but Germany looks like a team that's desperate to under-perform. I also think Serbia deserves respect for winning one of the tougher qualifying groups (not that any of the European qualifying groups are actually that challenging... but I'll save my rant on the BS that is European qualification for another time). While I think Germany has some potential, Klose and Podolski are not the players they were in 2006. Who's the best player on that team without Ballack? Lahm? I don't like this Germany team, and I think Serbia and Ghana will be fast and motivated. In another group, I might be inclined to give the Socceroos a look, but I really think Australia is outclassed across the board.

Full Disclosure: The teams that get out of this group match up against the teams that get out of the US' group, so I'm hoping for as much discord as possible here.

Group C Picks

Ah, Group C... home of the yanks. It probably goes without saying that I'm making these picks with my heart and not my head, but here goes:

England vs. USA (6/12) - Draw
Algeria vs. Slovenia (6/13) - Slovenia
Slovenia vs. USA (6/18) - USA
England vs. Algeria (6/18) - England
Slovenia vs. England (6/23) - England
Algeria vs. USA (6/23) - USA

1st Place: England 2nd Place: USA

Rationale: This actually isn't that crazy. The US getting the draw against England is optimism on my part, but a fourth to a third of all group games end in draws, so why not us? Slovenia has some goal scoring ability and Algeria showed a lot of pluck in qualifying, but unless the US or England or both have a very disappointing campaign, they should be the ones to make the first knockout round.

Roster Reaction and Group B Picks

Quick thoughts on the roster:

1.) Robbie Findley... did not see that coming, nor did anyone else it seems. In 2006, we brought a veteran, technical squad. This year, the most athletic team seems to be the one going to South Africa.

2.) Even though I didn't list him among my cuts, I can't blame Bradley for letting Chad Marshall go. I hadn't considered that Edu and Beasley can fill in at the back just as well.

3.) In 2006, there were 11 players from MLS teams on the 23 man roster. This year, there are 4.

Okay, onto the picks for Group B, which, while not really a group of death, could certainly prove to be unpredictable:

South Korea vs. Greece (6/12) - South Korea
Argentina vs. Nigeria (6/12) - Argentina
Argentina vs. South Korea (6/17) - Draw
Greece vs. Nigeria (6/17) - Greece
Nigeria vs. South Korea (6/22) - Draw
Greece vs. Argentina (6/22) - Draw

1st Place: Argentina 2nd Place: South Korea

Rationale: Of the traditional powers, Argentina was the least convincing in qualifying, but I think they do enough here to win the group on goal differential. Greece is known for its defensive play, but I think South Korea, based upon their qualifying campaign and on the recent result against Japan, will use team speed to find some space. No offense to Nigeria, but this is a tough group, and I don't see them beating any of these teams.

Disclaimer: I don't feel even remotely confident in these picks. Argentina, which boasts the presence of the best player in the world, could still show up, lay a complete egg and then this group is anyone's for the taking. Seriously.

Group A Picks

So, for fun, I'm going to be picking the games in each group. These picks are not scientific, and they are chock full of my own weird biases and nonsense ideas.

Group A
South Africa vs. Mexico (6/11) - Draw
Uruguay vs. France (6/11) - France
South Africa vs. Uruguay (6/16) - Uruguay
France vs. Mexico (6/17) - France
France vs. South Africa (6/22) - France
Mexico vs. Uruguay (6/22) - Draw

1st Place: France 2nd Place: Uruguay

Rationale: I thought about writing a lot of different things here. I could write about how Diego Forlan is a reliable scorer for Uruguay. I could write about how home field advantage will buoy South Africa in that opening match. I could talk about how the various scandals and controversies that the French are dealing with could make them pull together and play better like the Italy '06 team. But I won't. Instead, I'll just say that my hatred for the Mexican national team burns hotter than a thousand suns.